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King Joker
King Joker
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Who will win the Democratic nomination? Empty Who will win the Democratic nomination?

on August 24th 2019, 2:37 am
Prediction time.  Who will win the Democratic nomination? 228124001 

The top three contenders are Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren as of August 24, 2019, with Biden holding frontrunner status. Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg are holding on to relatively significant portions of the electorate in the polls and both are bringing in massive cash hauls. But who will actually win the race

Off-shoot question: Whoever you predict to win the nomination, give your thoughts on the likelihood of them winning the general.
HellfireUnit
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on August 24th 2019, 3:08 am
Probably Sanders. However I still think Trump will win the general elections which will be Sanders' last election.
Meatpants
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on August 24th 2019, 3:09 am
@HellfireUnit wrote:However I still think Trump will win the general elections which will be Sanders' last election.
KingofBlades
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on August 24th 2019, 3:15 am
Trump is gonna win either way but my money is Biden representing the democrats. The other candidates are too far left to realistically beat Biden.
King Joker
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on August 24th 2019, 3:25 am
I'm skeptical of Trump's ability to get himself re-elected, if I'm being honest. His aggregate favorables rarely break 42% and in the one area where people largely approve of him—the economy—Trump's approvals are faltering.

That, and none of the Democrats running have nearly the same amount of perceived baggage Hillary had in 2016*, which will make it difficult for Trump to turn the election into another "lesser of two evils" campaign.

*Biden has somewhat similar issues to Hillary, but for various reasons, I don't think they will impact him as badly.
Jake
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on August 24th 2019, 5:10 am
Biden's definitely the most electable in the general, and everyone knows that, so he'll be pushed to victory in the primaries. Outside of him I'm liking Warren, who has that "I'm a fighter" message, and with her rejecting virtually all corporate money, has the record to back up her posturing - why Hillary failed. She's basically what Hillary posed as, but with the substance.
LadyKulvax
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Who will win the Democratic nomination? Empty Re: Who will win the Democratic nomination?

on August 24th 2019, 7:47 am
Sanders will win and is the best chance the dems have. He's consistent, well-driven, popolar and is one of the few in the running among Dems that isn't being propped up by the DNC corporate sector.
KingofBlades
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on August 24th 2019, 3:25 pm
I doubt most democrats will choose a full blown socialist in Sanders over a relative moderate in Biden.
HellfireUnit
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on August 24th 2019, 3:34 pm
This is Murica pal, anything is possible.
King Joker
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on August 24th 2019, 5:47 pm
I can't see Sanders winning with Warren in the race. He's basically a poor man's version of her. 

And Biden's electability argument will start to ring hollow as his gaffes pile up. His supporters are already facing an enthusiasm gap [1]  [2]  compared to other candidates' support, and I have a feeling Biden isn't going to get any sharper or more inspiring as the campaign wears on.

That being said, I generally agree with the idea that if Biden's impressive polling vs. Trump somehow remains constant throughout the primary, he's definitely favored to win the nomination. Democrats #1 priority is beating Trump, so general election polling carries a much heavier weight for primary voters than specific policy positions.
LadyKulvax
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on August 24th 2019, 9:12 pm
Warren's not on Bernie's tier, at all. He's single-handedly been fighting Trump, the Republicans, the Democrats, the media and corporations. Both Republican and Democrat voters are turning to his side, especially after his Fox News and Joe Rogan appearances. Warren wishes Bernie was her poor man's version. It's emphatically the other way around.
King Joker
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on August 24th 2019, 10:38 pm
@LadyKulvax wrote:Warren's not on Bernie's tier, at all. He's single-handedly been fighting Trump, the Republicans, the Democrats, the media and corporations. Both Republican and Democrat voters are turning to his side, especially after his Fox News and Joe Rogan appearances. Warren wishes Bernie was her poor man's version. It's emphatically the other way around.

Warren created an entire regulatory branch of the United States government while not even an elected member of Congress, served as a distinguished Harvard law professor that politicians ranging from Hillary Clinton to Barack Obama sought tutelage and endorsements from, and has been one of the few candidates in the 2020 race to actually take the time to formulate detailed policy plans for when she actually takes office instead of relying solely on soaring rhetoric. She's an extremely competent individual with an in-depth knowledge of many of the banking, finance, and regulatory issues Sanders prioritizes. 

I have absolutely no idea what universe you'd have to be living in to believe that anyone is "single-handedly" taking on the president, let alone Bernie Sanders. Practically every Democrat has been trying their hardest to roadblock Trump's nonsense since inauguration day. 

And I think you have to be deeply confused to believe some of the things you mentioned are actually good (something Sanders should have learned by now): Fighting Democrats (usually, at this point, just for the sake of fighting Democrats—let's be honest) and antagonizing the media are surefire ways to make winning the nomination, and later forming a coalition to win the general, that much more difficult. Whining about supposedly unfair media coverage and actively trying to fracture the Democratic Party is Trump-esque and horribly counterproductive. 

Do you actually have any data suggesting Sanders's Fox News and/or Joe Rogan appearance(s) have moved the needle a non-trivial amount? Like, besides the YouTube comment section?

----- ----- ----- 

Bernie Sanders started off his 2020 campaign with an entirely established grassroots network from his 2016 campaign, comprising of millions of contacts and donors. Elizabeth Warren started off her campaign with no such wealth of assets. They are now virtually tied in the polls. Take that for what you will.  

Who will win the Democratic nomination? 228124001
KingofBlades
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on August 24th 2019, 10:40 pm
Tbh I'll take Trump's nonsensical rhetoric over a potential socialist America.
King Joker
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on August 24th 2019, 10:41 pm
Blade_of_Dorin
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on August 25th 2019, 12:59 am
Trump solos all the dems
PeraltaEagle45
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on August 25th 2019, 1:33 am
I'm gonna say Warren ends up winning the presidency. Biden's lead over her and Bernie in the Democratic race has been faltering, and his continual gaffes and lack of substance will hurt him in the end. Warren edges Bernie (though I wouldn't be surprised if it was the other way around) and any of those 3 would beat Trump in the general election, barring major Russian interference shenanigans.

Regardless of how it goes down, I sincerely hope the swing voters won't decide that paying a little extra in taxes is worse than modern American fascism.
KingofBlades
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on August 25th 2019, 1:41 am
Bruh who's really the fascists? The radical democrats basically call anyone who they disagree with a rascist or bigot.
HellfireUnit
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on August 25th 2019, 3:15 am
Trump is an ignorant, racist and an uneducated man with god complex. While democrats these days disgust me, Trump is the worst president US could have choose. Not surprising since he is the perfect candidate for an average American. Him being able to defeat Clinton was understandable though, since the latter was a true piece of crap and followed a goddamn idiotic path during her campaign.
KingofBlades
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on August 25th 2019, 3:51 am
Trump does say stupid things. However a racist? I'm not convinced. I think its more a case of him having a terrible grasp of the English language and that he can't communicate effectively. So things he didn't mean sound racist end up being interpreted that way. Other things he's said have not been racist but the radical left think it is. Like his comments about rashida talib or AOC. The left think he makes those comments because he's racist but in reality he's attacking their ideas not their race or gender. The left's identity politics is one of the biggest cancers in today's society.
HellfireUnit
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on August 25th 2019, 4:05 am
Trump's actions, ideology and general attitude towards the worldwide problems are honestly disgusting and embarassing. However the main problem is the left. You have such an incompetent and pathetic president, if you cannot exploit his weaknesses and gain the favor of people, you are as incompetent as the guy you oppose. In a country, the opposition party is more important than the ruling party. If you cannot take advantage of the government's problems, you simply are incompetent and aren't qualified to rule as well. I am quite familiar with this topic since I live in the goddamn Middle East and noone is qualified to bring down the authoritarian, fascist and islamist government. As a result, citizens pay the price. Also Murican left has turned into a bunch of sjws, no wonder they lose support from even Democrats.
King Joker
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on August 25th 2019, 4:21 am
If you're still doing mental gymnastics at this stage of the game about whether or not Trump is a racist, even with the (literally) dozens  of examples that could be cited over a span of decades, then there is literally no hope in convincing you otherwise. None whatsoever. I have so much more respect for the Trump supporters who just admit that he's racist and that they don't care. At least they're being honest. The denial is simply gaslighting.

-----

That being said, I would kind of prefer for this thread to steer clear of the president as best as possible. I know that won't be entirely possible due to the nature of this thread/discussion, but conservations about Trump always devolve into total toxicity. Not fun. 

Anyways, I agree with @PeraltaEagle45. I think Iowa is going to be an extremely close one between Biden, Sanders, and Warren, and whoever wins there I think has the best chance of securing the nom. 

My tentative prediction: 

Iowa: Warren
New Hampshire: Sanders
Nevada: Biden or tossup
South Carolina: Biden

Then *shrug* for the rest. But I think Warren will do the best in the places Sanders did well in 2016 (the Midwest)—depriving him of the necessary delegates to be viable this time around.
KingofBlades
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on August 25th 2019, 4:34 am
Not a trump supporter I don't like the dude. I just doubt whether he's a racist. The only reason I prefer him over the democrats is that I prefer capitalism over socialism. That sounds very broad but with how prominent socialism is becoming in the democratic party this is what it'll boil down to soon enough.
King Joker
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on August 25th 2019, 4:36 am
None of the Democrats running are legitimate socialists. Even Sanders isn't, really.
HellfireUnit
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on August 25th 2019, 4:42 am
Yeah, Muricans are instantly triggered when they hear free health care and call people commies that defend it.
HellfireUnit
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on August 25th 2019, 4:45 am
Besides that, Socialism/Communism is way past its expire date. People clinging to old idelogies should move on and learn from mistakes of the past generation which they generally don't. Currently, it appears Scandinavian system is the best for both government and citizens.
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