2020 U.S. Presidential Election

Well, with Joe Biden as the presumptive nominee for the Democratic Party, the general election is now unofficially underway.

Who do we think Biden will choose as his running mate? Chances of Trump being re-elected? Post your thoughts below, and let's just try to keep it civil!

well well well. a political thread by joker... did not see that one coming

TRUMP! TRUMP! TRUMP!

With Biden being the nominee, elections are pointless, you can as well crown Trump already.

Yeah, Trump already won.

Given the coronavirus response mismanagement, the impending recession/depression, Trump's declining approval ratings, and Biden's lead in the polls, I think it's a bit strange to say this election is a foregone conclusion.

The impending recession is a global phenomena. Trump can simply dodge that. Biden is extremely uncharismatic.

Neither appeal to me but it's quite obvious Trump will take it.

Global or not, Trump's most trotted-out argument in favor of his presidency, a robust economy, is gone. Recessions usually aren't directly caused by presidents, yet they usually suffer electoral consequences regardless.

It's not at all obvious. Trump is historically unpopular and we're under the throes of an unprecedented pandemic, so a lot is up in the air.

I want Trump to win. Luckily he’s going to win. 

Cheers to 4 more years of entertainment.

@King Joker wrote:Global or not, Trump's most trotted-out argument in favor of his presidency, a robust economy, is gone. Recessions usually aren't directly caused by presidents, yet they usually suffer electoral consequences regardless.

Trump's done a fairly good job of managing the optics, though.  I'd caution you against being too hopeful about this point.

The Democrats are practically fucked. All of their candidates have dropped out and considering it's just Biden I don't see Trump losing the election.

@King Joker wrote:Global or not, Trump's most trotted-out argument in favor of his presidency, a robust economy, is gone. Recessions usually aren't directly caused by presidents, yet they usually suffer electoral consequences regardless.

It's not at all obvious. Trump is historically unpopular and we're under the throes of an unprecedented pandemic, so a lot is up in the air.

Now imagine if we'd nominated someone with a ounce of charisma, smh.

LET'S GET READY TO BE BIDEN OUR TIME BOYS!!!

@TheNuisanceBird wrote:The Democrats are practically fucked. All of their candidates have dropped out and considering it's just Biden I don't see Trump losing the election.

Trump was on track to lose to hillary in a landslide before trump pulled a mustafar kenobi. Yall really need to chill with this revisionist history. Trump's won by the final polls being like 1% off. Trump has hardly established himself as an unbeatable juggernaut politically.

How did he pull a Mustafar Kenobi?

And my post is mainly about Biden VS Trump which I don't think will go well for the Democrats unless some miracle happens.

@TheNuisanceBird wrote:How did he pull a Mustafar Kenobi?

And my post is mainly about Biden VS Trump which I don't think will go well for the Democrats unless some miracle happens.

The comey report was a mustafar kenobi.

Given how horribly hillary ran her campaign, and how it took trump just about everything to win,  i think its kind of ridiculous to think biden needs a "miracle" here.

@freethedevil wrote:

The comey report was a mustafar kenobi.

Given how horribly hillary ran her campaign, and how it took trump just about everything to win,  i think its kind of ridiculous to think biden needs a "miracle" here.

Perhaps, but Biden doesn't strike me as someone that'd do well during the debates. I'd rather Yang in or Buttigieg in his place.

@TheNuisanceBird wrote:

@freethedevil wrote:

The comey report was a mustafar kenobi.

Given how horribly hillary ran her campaign, and how it took trump just about everything to win,  i think its kind of ridiculous to think biden needs a "miracle" here.

Perhaps, but Biden doesn't strike me as someone that'd do well during the debates. I'd rather Yang in or Buttigieg in his place.

Well, it's possible Trump will have learned some lessons from putting his campaign on life support in that first debate with hillary. The battleground and general election polls were pretty close before than irrc. Then trump managed to make hillary look like obama and it looked like arizona would become a battleground.

Imagine if hillarly was a semi competent campaigner and didn't try to campaign as an outsider.

I really don't think anyone gave a shit about Comey.  There's no proof it made a reasonable dent in her turnout.  It's a scape goat.

@Ziggy wrote:I really don't think anyone gave a shit about Comey.  There's no proof it made a reasonable dent in her turnout.  It's a scape goat.

The polls, which were around 2% off from the actual national vote, went from her being +8-10 and then plummeted to around a +2 advantage, a downturn that took place right after the comey letter.

Justified or not, it's pretty obvious that swung the election. Her advantage went from miles outside the margin of error to within the margin of error in a week.

They swung back up when Comey "cleared" her, and many were saying she had a 98% chance going into the election.  

So no, there really is no evidence they swung the election, there's no evidence that comey even bought or lost meager votes .  And why would it?

@Ziggy wrote:They swung back up when Comey "cleared" her, and many were saying she had a 98% chance going into the election.  

What? Polls don't say how "likely" you are to win. The polls never swung back. 

The ny times, which i guess you're referencing ignored that off course and gave her a 98% chance because they assumed that a state's odds of going one way would have zero correlation with which way another state would go. 

If you want to use election predictor you'd be better off looking at 538 who, a, accounts for the fact that states voting isn't entirely separate, and b, frequently updates the odds based on the polls giving us a frame for comparison.  538's likelihood had hillarly's percentages dip from 90+ to a 67% within a week of the election incident and it never went back up.

All that aside, the polls dipped permanently after the comey report. Braining up the ny times is a total red herring.