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King Joker
King Joker
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2020 U.S. Presidential Election Empty 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

on April 15th 2020, 11:05 pm
Well, with Joe Biden as the presumptive nominee for the Democratic Party, the general election is now unofficially underway.

Who do we think Biden will choose as his running mate? Chances of Trump being re-elected? Post your thoughts below, and let's just try to keep it civil! 2020 U.S. Presidential Election 228124001
lorenzo.r.2nd
lorenzo.r.2nd
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Level Two

2020 U.S. Presidential Election Empty Re: 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

on April 15th 2020, 11:16 pm
well well well. a political thread by joker... did not see that one coming
Set, The God of Chaos
Set, The God of Chaos
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Level Four

2020 U.S. Presidential Election Empty Re: 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

on April 16th 2020, 8:42 am
TRUMP! TRUMP! TRUMP!

2020 U.S. Presidential Election 1019854026 2020 U.S. Presidential Election 1019854026 2020 U.S. Presidential Election 1019854026
Bart
Bart
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Moderator

2020 U.S. Presidential Election Empty Re: 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

on April 17th 2020, 10:46 am
With Biden being the nominee, elections are pointless, you can as well crown Trump already.
TenebrousWay
TenebrousWay

2020 U.S. Presidential Election Empty Re: 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

on April 17th 2020, 2:49 pm
Yeah, Trump already won.
King Joker
King Joker
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2020 U.S. Presidential Election Empty Re: 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

on April 17th 2020, 11:31 pm
Given the coronavirus response mismanagement, the impending recession/depression, Trump's declining approval ratings, and Biden's lead in the polls, I think it's a bit strange to say this election is a foregone conclusion.
TenebrousWay
TenebrousWay

2020 U.S. Presidential Election Empty Re: 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

on April 18th 2020, 1:10 pm
The impending recession is a global phenomena. Trump can simply dodge that. Biden is extremely uncharismatic.

Neither appeal to me but it's quite obvious Trump will take it.
King Joker
King Joker
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2020 U.S. Presidential Election Empty Re: 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

on April 18th 2020, 4:03 pm
Global or not, Trump's most trotted-out argument in favor of his presidency, a robust economy, is gone. Recessions usually aren't directly caused by presidents, yet they usually suffer electoral consequences regardless.

It's not at all obvious. Trump is historically unpopular and we're under the throes of an unprecedented pandemic, so a lot is up in the air.
HeartoftheForce
HeartoftheForce

2020 U.S. Presidential Election Empty Re: 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

on April 18th 2020, 11:31 pm
I want Trump to win. Luckily he’s going to win. 

Cheers to 4 more years of entertainment.
Sas
Sas

2020 U.S. Presidential Election Empty Re: 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

on April 18th 2020, 11:51 pm
@King Joker wrote:Global or not, Trump's most trotted-out argument in favor of his presidency, a robust economy, is gone. Recessions usually aren't directly caused by presidents, yet they usually suffer electoral consequences regardless.

Trump's done a fairly good job of managing the optics, though.  I'd caution you against being too hopeful about this point.
TheNuisanceBird
TheNuisanceBird

2020 U.S. Presidential Election Empty Re: 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

on April 21st 2020, 12:27 pm
Message reputation : 100% (1 vote)
The Democrats are practically fucked. All of their candidates have dropped out and considering it's just Biden I don't see Trump losing the election.
freethedevil
freethedevil

2020 U.S. Presidential Election Empty Re: 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

on April 26th 2020, 12:06 pm
@King Joker wrote:Global or not, Trump's most trotted-out argument in favor of his presidency, a robust economy, is gone. Recessions usually aren't directly caused by presidents, yet they usually suffer electoral consequences regardless.

It's not at all obvious. Trump is historically unpopular and we're under the throes of an unprecedented pandemic, so a lot is up in the air.
Now imagine if we'd nominated someone with a ounce of charisma, smh.
The Dark Apprentice
The Dark Apprentice
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2020 U.S. Presidential Election Empty Re: 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

on April 26th 2020, 3:38 pm
Message reputation : 100% (2 votes)
2020 U.S. Presidential Election Cringe

LET'S GET READY TO BE BIDEN OUR TIME BOYS!!!
freethedevil
freethedevil

2020 U.S. Presidential Election Empty Re: 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

on April 26th 2020, 4:32 pm
@TheNuisanceBird wrote:The Democrats are practically fucked. All of their candidates have dropped out and considering it's just Biden I don't see Trump losing the election.
Trump was on track to lose to hillary in a landslide before trump pulled a mustafar kenobi. Yall really need to chill with this revisionist history. Trump's won by the final polls being like 1% off. Trump has hardly established himself as an unbeatable juggernaut politically.
TheNuisanceBird
TheNuisanceBird

2020 U.S. Presidential Election Empty Re: 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

on April 26th 2020, 4:34 pm
How did he pull a Mustafar Kenobi?

And my post is mainly about Biden VS Trump which I don't think will go well for the Democrats unless some miracle happens.
freethedevil
freethedevil

2020 U.S. Presidential Election Empty Re: 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

on April 26th 2020, 4:37 pm
@TheNuisanceBird wrote:How did he pull a Mustafar Kenobi?

And my post is mainly about Biden VS Trump which I don't think will go well for the Democrats unless some miracle happens.
The comey report was a mustafar kenobi.

Given how horribly hillary ran her campaign, and how it took trump just about everything to win,  i think its kind of ridiculous to think biden needs a "miracle" here.
TheNuisanceBird
TheNuisanceBird

2020 U.S. Presidential Election Empty Re: 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

on April 26th 2020, 7:13 pm
@freethedevil wrote:

The comey report was a mustafar kenobi.

Given how horribly hillary ran her campaign, and how it took trump just about everything to win,  i think its kind of ridiculous to think biden needs a "miracle" here.

Perhaps, but Biden doesn't strike me as someone that'd do well during the debates. I'd rather Yang in or Buttigieg in his place.
freethedevil
freethedevil

2020 U.S. Presidential Election Empty Re: 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

on April 26th 2020, 11:53 pm
@TheNuisanceBird wrote:
@freethedevil wrote:

The comey report was a mustafar kenobi.

Given how horribly hillary ran her campaign, and how it took trump just about everything to win,  i think its kind of ridiculous to think biden needs a "miracle" here.

Perhaps, but Biden doesn't strike me as someone that'd do well during the debates. I'd rather Yang in or Buttigieg in his place.
Well, it's possible Trump will have learned some lessons from putting his campaign on life support in that first debate with hillary. The battleground and general election polls were pretty close before than irrc. Then trump managed to make hillary look like obama and it looked like arizona would become a battleground.

Imagine if hillarly was a semi competent campaigner and didn't try to campaign as an outsider.
Ziggy
Ziggy

2020 U.S. Presidential Election Empty Re: 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

on April 27th 2020, 5:21 pm
Message reputation : 100% (2 votes)
I really don't think anyone gave a shit about Comey.  There's no proof it made a reasonable dent in her turnout.  It's a scape goat.
freethedevil
freethedevil

2020 U.S. Presidential Election Empty Re: 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

on April 29th 2020, 5:58 pm
@Ziggy wrote:I really don't think anyone gave a shit about Comey.  There's no proof it made a reasonable dent in her turnout.  It's a scape goat.
The polls, which were around 2% off from the actual national vote, went from her being +8-10 and then plummeted to around a +2 advantage, a downturn that took place right after the comey letter.

Justified or not, it's pretty obvious that swung the election. Her advantage went from miles outside the margin of error to within the margin of error in a week.
Ziggy
Ziggy

2020 U.S. Presidential Election Empty Re: 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

on April 30th 2020, 10:46 am
They swung back up when Comey "cleared" her, and many were saying she had a 98% chance going into the election.  

So no, there really is no evidence they swung the election, there's no evidence that comey even bought or lost meager votes .  And why would it?


Last edited by Ziggy on April 30th 2020, 9:52 pm; edited 1 time in total
LSDMB
LSDMB
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2020 U.S. Presidential Election Empty Re: 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

on April 30th 2020, 5:15 pm
Joe Biden... is Joe Biden.

#BelieveAllWomen
freethedevil
freethedevil

2020 U.S. Presidential Election Empty Re: 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

on April 30th 2020, 10:54 pm
@Ziggy wrote:They swung back up when Comey "cleared" her, and many were saying she had a 98% chance going into the election.  
What? Polls don't say how "likely" you are to win. The polls never swung back. 

The ny times, which i guess you're referencing ignored that off course and gave her a 98% chance because they assumed that a state's odds of going one way would have zero correlation with which way another state would go. 

If you want to use election predictor you'd be better off looking at 538 who, a, accounts for the fact that states voting isn't entirely separate, and b, frequently updates the odds based on the polls giving us a frame for comparison.  538's likelihood had hillarly's percentages dip from 90+ to a 67% within a week of the election incident and it never went back up.

All that aside, the polls dipped permanently after the comey report. Braining up the ny times is a total red herring.
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